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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|